Argentina rely on Lionel Messi too much - Tim Vickery

A WIN at Ecuador on Tuesday will guarantee Argentina a place in a World Cup play-off against New Zealand.

Draw, though, and they are probably out – and given that the game takes place at altitude, conditions the Argentines detest – then there is a possibility that the final round of qualifiers might be Lionel Messi’s last game for his country. In what has been a largely mediocre collection of South American teams, and with so much attacking talent to call on, it is astonishing that Argentina are in such trouble – and have scored just 16 goals in 17 games.

The warning signs, though, have been flashing for a while. Between 1995 and 2007 Argentina won the World Under-20 Cup five times, producing a conveyor belt of talent for the senior side, from Juan Roman Riquelme to Sergio Aguero – with Messi also in the mix.

When they won Olympic gold in 2008 – the closest thing Messi has to a senior international title, then-coach Sergio Batista issued a warning. The quality of youth development in Argentina, he said, was in sharp decline.

Events have proved him right.

Since then Argentina’s Under-20 sides have been poor, the conveyor belt has slowed down and there are serious problems in a number of positions.

Argentina have lacked a top class centre back, for example, since the retirement of Roberto Ayala a decade ago – and since then they have rarely looked like a fully coherent team.

Instead, they have been dependent on flashes of individual genius, mostly from Messi.

The team that hauled itself to the World Cup final three years ago was heavily reliant on the inspiration of Messi and the grit of Javier Mascherano. One of the problems of this campaign is that Messi has missed 8 matches – in which Argentina managed just 7 points.

Another, a constant in recent times, has been the lack of defensive pace. And the biggest problem of all has been the nerves that can hit a traditional giant when it is in danger of failing so badly.

Argentina have played the last few matches as if they been running in treacle.

Having three coaches during the campaign has hardly helped. The latest, Jorge Sampaoli, has a fine track record of producing bold attacking sides. But there is no time on the training ground to bed in the changes he wants to make. And his nervousness on the touchline, pacing up and down his technical area as if he ran on batteries, is all too easily transmitted to the players.

But there is still a chance that they could save themselves and, perhaps, construct an interesting team in time for the World Cup. For all that Argentina despise playing at altitude, there is something about Tuesday’s game they should relish. Recent opponents have all sat back against them and run the clock down.

In front of their own fans Ecuador will surely be more ambitious. They will come out to attack and Messi and company should have more space to conjure some magic.

Argentina will be gasping for oxygen in the thin mountain air. But if they can stay calm and take deep breaths then they still might make it to Russia.

From The Sun